Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

How many additional H5N1 infections will be reported in wild birds across the United States by the end of March 2023?

Resolved :141159
4
14
Total Forecasters34
Community Prediction159 (139 - 202)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction
community
<115
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>900
...
...
...
...
...
10.6%
138.6
159.3
202.4
0.2%

What was the final result?141

Community Baseline Score
39.6
Community Peer Score
33.7
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
NMorrison
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰
Health & Pandemics
Environment & Climate
Natural Sciences
2023 Leaderboard
Virology
US Department of Agriculture
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Epidemiology
Influenza A virus subtype H5N1
Human mortality from H5N1
United States
Medicine
Microbiology

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