Question

When will a Chinese entity develop a model surpassing GPT-4's few-shot performance on MMLU?

18 comments18

Total Forecasters62

Community Prediction2024-12-03

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lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2029-06-13

...

2024-09-27 08:45

2024-12-03 20:04

2025-04-04 04:03

1.2%

Authors:

Lawrence

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Business of AI

AI in China

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

China

List of companies of China

On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?

11.5

When will an AI model trained with the following orders of magnitude more compute than GPT-4 be released?

Comments

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Authors:

Lawrence

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Business of AI

AI in China

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

China

List of companies of China

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On January 1, 2025, which frontier AI lab will have a publicly available model with the highest score on the MMLU benchmark?

How many months after a Western actor trains a 1e26 FLOP model (~5x GPT-4) will a Chinese actor do so?

11.5