Question

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

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Total Forecasters8

Community Prediction2024-12-15 (2024-05-12 - 2025-08-31)

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2030-02-14

...

2024-05-12 23:51

2024-12-15 20:39

2025-08-31 08:23

0.2%

Authors:

Lawrence

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI in China

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99%

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

71%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Lawrence

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI in China

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Will the world's fastest supercomputer please stand up?

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Morgan Stanley names 7 beneficiaries of Amazon AWS’ new Trainium 2 AI chip

CNBC•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99%

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

71%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

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When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

Make a Prediction

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Comments

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?