Question

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

Total Forecasters8

Community Prediction2025-01-02 (2024-05-14 - 2025-10-22)

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CDF

weight:

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>2030-02-14
community	May 2024	Jan 2025	Oct 2025	0.5%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	May 2024	—
median	Jan 2025	—
upper 75%	Oct 2025	—
Upper bound
>2030-02-14	0.5%	—

Authors:

Lawrence

Opened:

Mar 19, 2023

Closes:

Feb 13, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jun 15, 2030

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