Question

When will a Chinese organization train a large model on GPUs that deliver more than 1500 TFLOPs@FP16?

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Total Forecasters8

Community Prediction2024-12-15

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2030-02-14

...

2024-05-12 23:51

2024-12-15 20:39

2025-08-31 08:23

0.2%

Authors:

Lawrence

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI in China

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99%

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

33%

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%

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Authors:

Lawrence

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI in China

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

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Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?

99%

Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?

33%

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

93%