Group

Conditional on the change in the transition metal index, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

8 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

≤ +55%

> +55%

Make a Prediction

Condition	25th	median	75th
> +55%	22.6 ...	34.3 ...	43.8 ...
≤ +55%	26.7 ...	36.5 ...	45.1 ...

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CDF

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

22.6

34.28

43.79

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Mar 16, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Apr 1, 2031

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Zero-emissions vehicle

United States

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