Group

Conditional on the change in the transition metal index, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

8 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

≤ +55%

> +55%

Make a Prediction

Condition	25th	median	75th
> +55%	22.6 ...	34.3 ...	43.8 ...
≤ +55%	26.7 ...	36.5 ...	45.1 ...

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

22.6

34.28

43.79

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Zero-emissions vehicle

United States

US EPA approves California plan to ban gas-only cars starting in 2035

One America•Dec 18, 2024

EPA Approves California Plan to Ban Sales of Gas Cars by 2035

Newsweek•Dec 18, 2024

Why Trump's looming battle with California over EVs will affect the entire auto industry

Business Insider•Dec 18, 2024

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Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

50.1

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

52.6

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Zero-emissions vehicle

United States

US EPA approves California plan to ban gas-only cars starting in 2035

One America•Dec 18, 2024

EPA Approves California Plan to Ban Sales of Gas Cars by 2035

Newsweek•Dec 18, 2024

Why Trump's looming battle with California over EVs will affect the entire auto industry

Business Insider•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

50.1

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

52.6

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Conditional on the change in the transition metal index, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Comments

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?