Group

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

10 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

> 185k

≤ 185k

Make a Prediction

Condition	25th	median	75th
> 185k	41.9 ...	52.6 ...	60.8 ...
≤ 185k	32.1 ...	41.5 ...	53.8 ...

PDF

CDF

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

41.93

52.65

60.77

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Mar 16, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Apr 1, 2031

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Light commercial vehicle

Zero-emissions vehicle

United States

The nation's electric car charging network saw record growth in 2024 - but is it accelerating fast enough to hit green targets?

Daily Mail•Jan 22, 2025

China’s EV growth: How a bet made decades ago is paying off big

CNN•Jan 23, 2025

Can the grid cope with many more EV chargers?

Spectator (UK)•Jan 24, 2025

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