Group

Conditional on gas prices, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

9 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

> $3.30

≤ $3.30

Make a Prediction

Condition	25th	median	75th
≤ $3.30	20.3 ...	27.3 ...	36.3 ...
> $3.30	35.8 ...	45.9 ...	55.4 ...

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

20.25

27.26

36.29

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Light commercial vehicle

US dollar

Gasoline and diesel usage and pricing

Zero-emissions vehicle

United States

Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

48.9

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

50.1

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Light commercial vehicle

US dollar

Gasoline and diesel usage and pricing

Zero-emissions vehicle

United States

Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure

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Guardian•Nov 11, 2024

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Daily Mail•Nov 11, 2024

Blue state drivers brace for higher prices at the pump over tighter climate standards

New York Post•Nov 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

48.9

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

50.1