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Conditional on gas prices, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

9 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

> $3.30

≤ $3.30

Make a Prediction

Condition	25th	median	75th
≤ $3.30	20.3 ...	27.3 ...	36.3 ...
> $3.30	35.8 ...	45.9 ...	55.4 ...

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

20.25

27.26

36.29

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Light commercial vehicle

US dollar

Gasoline and diesel usage and pricing

Zero-emissions vehicle

United States

Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure

California can ban new gas cars starting in 2035, EPA says

TechCrunch•Dec 19, 2024

US EPA approves California plan to ban gas-only cars starting in 2035

One America•Dec 18, 2024

Biden administration greenlights California’s 2035 ban of new gas car sales in move likely to be revoked by Trump

CNN•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

52.6

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

50.1

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Light commercial vehicle

US dollar

Gasoline and diesel usage and pricing

Zero-emissions vehicle

United States

Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure

California can ban new gas cars starting in 2035, EPA says

TechCrunch•Dec 19, 2024

US EPA approves California plan to ban gas-only cars starting in 2035

One America•Dec 18, 2024

Biden administration greenlights California’s 2035 ban of new gas car sales in move likely to be revoked by Trump

CNN•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

52.6

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

50.1

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Conditional on gas prices, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Comments

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?