Group

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

8 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

> 325

≤ 325

Make a Prediction

Condition	25th	median	75th
> 325	27.4 ...	37 ...	49.1 ...
≤ 325	12.2 ...	18.8 ...	26 ...

PDF

CDF

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

27.44

36.96

49.09

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Mar 16, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Apr 1, 2031

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Electric vehicle

Light commercial vehicle

List price

Zero-emissions vehicle

United States

Honda Shows New 0 Series EVs At CES, Custom Chips And L3 Automation

Forbes•Jan 24, 2025

UK needs to ban full hybrid cars by 2030 or face net zero ‘catastrophe’, says motoring body

Guardian•Jan 27, 2025

All car manufacturers complied with ZEV mandate last year to escape government fines

Daily Mail•Jan 27, 2025

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