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Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

8 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

> 325

≤ 325

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Condition	25th	median	75th
> 325	27.4 ...	37 ...	49.1 ...
≤ 325	12.2 ...	18.8 ...	26 ...

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

27.44

36.96

49.09

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Electric vehicle

Light commercial vehicle

List price

Zero-emissions vehicle

United States

US EPA approves California plan to ban gas-only cars starting in 2035

One America•Dec 18, 2024

EPA approves California plan to ban sale of gas-only cars in 2035

USA Today•Dec 19, 2024

U.S. auto sales next year expected to be best since 2019

NBC•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on gas prices, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

52.6

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

50.1

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Electric vehicle

Light commercial vehicle

List price

Zero-emissions vehicle

United States

US EPA approves California plan to ban gas-only cars starting in 2035

One America•Dec 18, 2024

EPA approves California plan to ban sale of gas-only cars in 2035

USA Today•Dec 19, 2024

U.S. auto sales next year expected to be best since 2019

NBC•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on gas prices, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

52.6

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

50.1

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Conditional on gas prices, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Comments

Conditional on gas prices, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on gas prices, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on gas prices, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?