Group

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

10 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

> 14

≤ 14

Make a Prediction

Condition	25th	median	75th
> 14	41.5 ...	50.1 ...	55.8 ...
≤ 14	24.4 ...	29.3 ...	35.5 ...

PDF

CDF

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

41.55

50.11

55.79

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Mar 16, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Apr 1, 2031

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Transport

Engineering

Zero-emissions vehicle

Environmental science

United States

California

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