Question

Will a law that allows states other than California to set their own stringent vehicle emissions standards be enacted in the United States before January 1, 2027?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters34

Community Prediction5% (2% - 9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

US Environmental Protection Agency

Clean Air Act

United States

California

Supreme Court to hear challenge to California's authority to set vehicle emissions standards

NPR Online News•Dec 14, 2024

California can ban new gas cars starting in 2035, EPA says

TechCrunch•Dec 19, 2024

Supreme Court takes up case over California vehicle emissions standards

CBS•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will California's waiver exception under the Clean Air Act be repealed before January 1, 2027?

37%

Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?

62%

How many states will have legally enforceable rules that are at least as stringent as Advanced Clean Cars II on January 1 of the following years?

11.6

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

US Environmental Protection Agency

Clean Air Act

United States

California

Supreme Court to hear challenge to California's authority to set vehicle emissions standards

NPR Online News•Dec 14, 2024

California can ban new gas cars starting in 2035, EPA says

TechCrunch•Dec 19, 2024

Supreme Court takes up case over California vehicle emissions standards

CBS•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will California's waiver exception under the Clean Air Act be repealed before January 1, 2027?

37%

Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?

62%

How many states will have legally enforceable rules that are at least as stringent as Advanced Clean Cars II on January 1 of the following years?

11.6

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Will a law that allows states other than California to set their own stringent vehicle emissions standards be enacted in the United States before January 1, 2027?

Make a Prediction

Will California's waiver exception under the Clean Air Act be repealed before January 1, 2027?

Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?

How many states will have legally enforceable rules that are at least as stringent as Advanced Clean Cars II on January 1 of the following years?

Comments

Will California's waiver exception under the Clean Air Act be repealed before January 1, 2027?

Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?

How many states will have legally enforceable rules that are at least as stringent as Advanced Clean Cars II on January 1 of the following years?

Will California's waiver exception under the Clean Air Act be repealed before January 1, 2027?

Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?

How many states will have legally enforceable rules that are at least as stringent as Advanced Clean Cars II on January 1 of the following years?

Will California's waiver exception under the Clean Air Act be repealed before January 1, 2027?

Will the EPA grant a waiver for the entirety of California's proposed Advanced Clean Cars II before January 21, 2025?

How many states will have legally enforceable rules that are at least as stringent as Advanced Clean Cars II on January 1 of the following years?