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Conditional on the US eliminating EV sourcing requirements, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are ZEVs?

11 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Eliminated

Not eliminated

Make a Prediction

Condition	25th	median	75th
Not eliminated	24.1 ...	30.1 ...	36 ...
Eliminated	35.9 ...	44.1 ...	51.5 ...

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

24.09

30.12

35.97

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Electric vehicle

Government incentives for plug-in electric vehicles

Transport

Engineering

Light commercial vehicle

Zero-emissions vehicle

Environmental science

United States

Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure

California can ban new gas cars starting in 2035, EPA says

TechCrunch•Dec 19, 2024

Trump transition team plans sweeping rollback of Biden EV, emissions policies

USA Today•Dec 17, 2024

US EPA approves California plan to ban gas-only cars starting in 2035

One America•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

50.1

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

52.6

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Electric vehicle

Government incentives for plug-in electric vehicles

Transport

Engineering

Light commercial vehicle

Zero-emissions vehicle

Environmental science

United States

Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure

California can ban new gas cars starting in 2035, EPA says

TechCrunch•Dec 19, 2024

Trump transition team plans sweeping rollback of Biden EV, emissions policies

USA Today•Dec 17, 2024

US EPA approves California plan to ban gas-only cars starting in 2035

One America•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

50.1

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

52.6

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Conditional on the US eliminating EV sourcing requirements, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are ZEVs?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Comments

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?