Group

Conditional on the US eliminating EV sourcing requirements, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are ZEVs?

1 comment1

11 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Eliminated

Not eliminated

Make a Prediction

Condition

median

PDF

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Mar 16, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 15, 2031

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Electric vehicle

Government incentives for plug-in electric vehicles

Transport

Engineering

Light commercial vehicle

Zero-emissions vehicle

Environmental science

United States

Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure

EPA greenlights Cali EVs

American Thinker•Feb 16, 2025

What we know about claims State Department was set to buy $400M in 'armored Teslas'

Snopes•Feb 16, 2025

Some of Trump's policy changes are expected to impact Tesla. Elon Musk doesn't sound too worried.

Business Insider•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

50.1

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

52.6

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Mar 16, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 15, 2031

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Electric vehicle

Government incentives for plug-in electric vehicles

Transport

Engineering

Light commercial vehicle

Zero-emissions vehicle

Environmental science

United States

Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure

EPA greenlights Cali EVs

American Thinker•Feb 16, 2025

What we know about claims State Department was set to buy $400M in 'armored Teslas'

Snopes•Feb 16, 2025

Some of Trump's policy changes are expected to impact Tesla. Elon Musk doesn't sound too worried.

Business Insider•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

50.1

Conditional on the number of public charging stations, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

52.6