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Conditional on the US implementing NEPA reform, what will be the change in the energy transition metal index for December of 2027 relative to December 2020?

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8 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Law passed

Law not passed

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Condition

median

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Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Mar 16, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 15, 2028

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Environmental impact statement

National Environmental Policy Act

United States

How Trump Is Trying to Undo the Inflation Reduction Act

Time•Feb 28, 2025

NEPA For Regulations: The Three Pillars Of Technocratic Governance

Forbes•Mar 1, 2025

The US energy market has its troubles, though it may not be a ‘national emergency’

The Conversation•Mar 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on the US implementing NEPA reform, how many mines will produce either cobalt, nickel, manganese, or graphite in the United States in 2030?

2.66

Will the United States pass a law setting deadlines on NEPA review before January 1, 2027?

49.4%

Conditional on the change in the transition metal index, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

38.9

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Mar 16, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 15, 2028

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Environmental impact statement

National Environmental Policy Act

United States

How Trump Is Trying to Undo the Inflation Reduction Act

Time•Feb 28, 2025

NEPA For Regulations: The Three Pillars Of Technocratic Governance

Forbes•Mar 1, 2025

The US energy market has its troubles, though it may not be a ‘national emergency’

The Conversation•Mar 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on the US implementing NEPA reform, how many mines will produce either cobalt, nickel, manganese, or graphite in the United States in 2030?

2.66

Will the United States pass a law setting deadlines on NEPA review before January 1, 2027?

49.4%

Conditional on the change in the transition metal index, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

38.9