Group

Conditional on the US implementing NEPA reform, what will be the change in the energy transition metal index for December of 2027 relative to December 2020?

8 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Law passed

Law not passed

Make a Prediction

Condition	25th	median	75th
Law not passed	149 ...	357 ...	499 ...
Law passed	168 ...	453 ...	571 ...

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1k

...

148.7

356.9

499.5

5.3%

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Environmental impact statement

National Environmental Policy Act

United States

Conditional on the US implementing NEPA reform, how many mines will produce either cobalt, nickel, manganese, or graphite in the United States in 2030?

2.66

Will the United States pass a law setting deadlines on NEPA review before January 1, 2027?

49.4%

Conditional on the change in the transition metal index, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

38.8

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Environmental impact statement

National Environmental Policy Act

United States

Trump Administration Likely to Repeal Methane Leak Penalty

Scientific American•Nov 13, 2024

Court’s NEPA Ruling Casts Doubt On CEQ Authority

Forbes•Nov 14, 2024

DC Circuit LNG Case Has Massive Energy Transition Implications

Forbes•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on the US implementing NEPA reform, how many mines will produce either cobalt, nickel, manganese, or graphite in the United States in 2030?

2.66

Will the United States pass a law setting deadlines on NEPA review before January 1, 2027?

49.4%

Conditional on the change in the transition metal index, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

38.8