Question

What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?

Resolved :0.1550.162

11 comments11

Total Forecasters40

Community Prediction0.162 (0.154 - 0.171)

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

0.1536

0.1623

0.1709

What was the final result?0.155

Community Baseline Score

50.2

Community Peer Score

2.2

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Metaculus

2018-2019 Leaderboard

Piracetam

Cryptography

Astronomy

Elliptic-curve cryptography

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

1.01

Analysis of 20,000 predictions

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?

98.2

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Metaculus

2018-2019 Leaderboard

Piracetam

Cryptography

Astronomy

Elliptic-curve cryptography

Trivia quiz: Slate’s daily game of questions about culture.

Slate•Dec 17, 2024

OpenAI's o3 model aced a test of AI reasoning – but it's still not AGI

New Scientist•Dec 21, 2024

Why Wall Street's S&P 500 forecast for 2025 is likely to be 'way off'

CNBC•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

1.01

Analysis of 20,000 predictions

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?

98.2

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What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?

Make a Prediction

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

Analysis of 20,000 predictions

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?

Comments

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

Analysis of 20,000 predictions

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

Analysis of 20,000 predictions

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

Analysis of 20,000 predictions

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?