Question

What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?

Resolved :0.155

11 comments11

Total Forecasters40

Community Prediction0.162

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

0.1536

0.1623

0.1709

What was the final result?0.155

Community Baseline Score

50.2

Community Peer Score

2.2

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elliptic-curve cryptography

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

1.01

Analysis of 20,000 predictions

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?

98.2

Comments

? comments