Question

What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?

Resolved :1.55e-1

11 comments11

Total Forecasters40

Community Prediction1.62e-1

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

1.54e-1

1.62e-1

1.71e-1

What was the final result?1.55e-1

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

1.01

Analysis of 20,000 predictions

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?

98.2

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

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How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

1.01

Analysis of 20,000 predictions

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?

98.2

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

What will the community average log-score be after the 500th question?

Make a Prediction

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

Analysis of 20,000 predictions

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?

Comments

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

Analysis of 20,000 predictions

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

Analysis of 20,000 predictions

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?

How much better will the Metaculus Prediction be on continuous questions be, relative to the Community Prediction, over the 365-day period following its next update?

Analysis of 20,000 predictions

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?