Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will GPT-4 be updated to include training data no more than 1 year old by June 30, 2023?

Resolved :No1%
6
4
Total Forecasters81
Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
79.0
Community Peer Score
5.9
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
dschwarzpeter_m
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Business of AI
2023 Leaderboard
OpenAI

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