Question

When will China manufacture extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment domestically?

10 comments10

Total Forecasters22

Community Prediction2027-11-05

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My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>2040-08-14

...

2025-12-15 15:27

2027-11-05 07:43

2030-03-31 18:31

0.5%

Authors:

Lawrence

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI in China

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Extreme ultraviolet lithography

Dutch government-in-exile

Will a Chinese fab have a volume production process that uses EUV photolithography before 2033?

80%

Will a Chinese firm market an EUV photolithography machine before 2033?

85%

Will a Chinese-made ArFi lithography machine be used in volume production anywhere before 2028?

66%

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