Question

Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?

Resolved :Yes73%

8 comments8

Total Forecasters67

Community Prediction73% (62% - 83%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 73%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

44.2

Community Peer Score

6.4

Authors:

christian

Opened:

Nov 23, 2018

Closes:

Dec 1, 2019

Resolves:

Jan 3, 2021

Environment & Climate

Technology

2016-2020 Leaderboard

The Ocean Cleanup

Boyan Slat

Great Pacific garbage patch

Offshore Wind and Trump

CounterPunch•Jan 20, 2025

The Fate of NASA’s Mars Sample Return Program May Be Decided in 2026

Scientific American•Jan 21, 2025

Dark oxygen: New deep sea expedition to explore mysterious discovery

New Scientist•Jan 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Billion Oyster Project restore 1 billion oysters to New York Harbor before 2035?

50.4%

Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?

15%

Will British Petroleum (BP) successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?

12%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

christian

Opened:

Nov 23, 2018

Closes:

Dec 1, 2019

Resolves:

Jan 3, 2021

Environment & Climate

Technology

2016-2020 Leaderboard

The Ocean Cleanup

Boyan Slat

Great Pacific garbage patch

Offshore Wind and Trump

CounterPunch•Jan 20, 2025

The Fate of NASA’s Mars Sample Return Program May Be Decided in 2026

Scientific American•Jan 21, 2025

Dark oxygen: New deep sea expedition to explore mysterious discovery

New Scientist•Jan 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the Billion Oyster Project restore 1 billion oysters to New York Harbor before 2035?

50.4%

Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?

15%

Will British Petroleum (BP) successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?

12%

Will the Ocean Cleanup project *fail* to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?

Make a Prediction

Will the Billion Oyster Project restore 1 billion oysters to New York Harbor before 2035?

Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?

Will British Petroleum (BP) successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?

Comments

Will the Billion Oyster Project restore 1 billion oysters to New York Harbor before 2035?

Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?

Will British Petroleum (BP) successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?

Will the Billion Oyster Project restore 1 billion oysters to New York Harbor before 2035?

Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?

Will British Petroleum (BP) successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?

Will the Billion Oyster Project restore 1 billion oysters to New York Harbor before 2035?

Will there be a successful seasteading venture with at least 100 participants before 2035?

Will British Petroleum (BP) successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?

Will the Ocean Cleanup project fail to have 60 systems up and running by 2021?