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Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

3 comments3

Forecast Timeline

Year: 2032 FLOPs: 10e30

Year: 2036 FLOPs: 10e32

Year: 2028 FLOPs: 10e28

Year: 2040 FLOPs: 10e32

Year: 2026 FLOPs: 10e26

Make a Prediction

Year/FLOPs		My Prediction		Me
Year: 2032 FLOPs: 10e30	-

Year: 2036 FLOPs: 10e32	-

Year: 2028 FLOPs: 10e28	-

Year: 2040 FLOPs: 10e32	-

Year: 2026 FLOPs: 10e26	-

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

GustavoLacerda

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

2023 Leaderboard

FLOPS

Measurement

Information technology

Computer hardware

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TechCrunch•Dec 24, 2024

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What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

2×10²⁵

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

6.07M

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

GustavoLacerda

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

2023 Leaderboard

FLOPS

Measurement

Information technology

Computer hardware

TechCrunch•Dec 24, 2024

OpenAI’s o3 suggests AI models are scaling in new ways — but so are the costs

TechCrunch•Dec 24, 2024

AI Models Are Getting Smarter. New Tests Are Racing to Catch Up

Time•Dec 25, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

2×10²⁵

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

6.07M

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

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MetaculusM

Will the estimated training FLOPs of any exfiltrated AI exceed the indicated amount before the indicated year?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

Comments

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

What will be the maximum compute (in petaFLOPS-days) ever used in training an AI experiment by the following dates?

Will the FLOPs thresholds outlined in the US Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be updated before the indicated year?