Question

Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters100

Community Prediction15% (6% - 26%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 15%

Authors:

jacob.pfau

Opened:

Mar 26, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Machine learning

Linguistics

OpenAI

ChatGPT will now combat bias with new measures put forth by OpenAI

FOX News•Feb 20, 2025

A test for AGI is closer to being solved — but it may be flawed

TechCrunch•Feb 21, 2025

Radical Data Science

•Feb 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

2026-11-05

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

70%

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

2025-07-08

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jacob.pfau

Opened:

Mar 26, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Machine learning

Linguistics

OpenAI

ChatGPT will now combat bias with new measures put forth by OpenAI

FOX News•Feb 20, 2025

A test for AGI is closer to being solved — but it may be flawed

TechCrunch•Feb 21, 2025

Radical Data Science

•Feb 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

2026-11-05

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

70%

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

2025-07-08