Question

Will ARC find that GPT-5 has autonomous replication capabilities?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters99

Community Prediction18% (8% - 26%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 18%

Authors:

jacob.pfau

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Machine learning

Linguistics

OpenAI

OpenAI is trying to extend human life, with help from a longevity startup

TechCrunch•Jan 18, 2025

OpenAI’s agent tool may be nearing release

TechCrunch•Jan 21, 2025

ChatGPT goes down as OpenAI scrambles to fix bug

New York Post•Jan 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

2026-11-05

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

65%

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

2025-07-01

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jacob.pfau

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Safety

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Machine learning

Linguistics

OpenAI

OpenAI is trying to extend human life, with help from a longevity startup

TechCrunch•Jan 18, 2025

OpenAI’s agent tool may be nearing release

TechCrunch•Jan 21, 2025

ChatGPT goes down as OpenAI scrambles to fix bug

New York Post•Jan 23, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Date of the first AI model capable of autonomous self-replication

2026-11-05

Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?

65%

When will OpenAI announce GPT-5?

2025-07-01