Question

Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters28

Community Prediction62% (40% - 77%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 62%

Authors:

Lawrence

Opened:

Mar 30, 2023

Closes:

Dec 23, 2034

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2035

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

United States

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Will any frontier model be released in 2029 without a third-party evaluation of dangerous capabilities?

40%

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2026?

57%

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

83%

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