🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027?

Total Forecasters158
Community Prediction7% (3% - 15%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 7%
Learn more about scores here.
Macron's presidency has hit rock bottom with the National Rally leading his centrist alliance by almost 10 points in polls.
Macron is under pressure to appoint a new prime minister who can pass a 2025 budget through a deeply divided parliament, following the ousting of Prime Minister Michel Barnier.
The French constitution prevents the dissolution of the National Assembly and fresh elections before July 8, 2025, due to the rule against holding two legislative elections within 12 months.
Emmanuel Macron has ruled out resigning and stated he will stay in power until the end of his term in 2027, despite the political turmoil following the government's collapse due to a no-confidence vote.
Opened:
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