Question

Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?

Resolved :Yes90%

23 comments23

Total Forecasters304

Community Prediction90% (80% - 95%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

2.9

Community Peer Score

8.1

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

2023 Leaderboard

Belarus

US Department of Defense

Belarus–Russia relations

Russia under Vladimir Putin

Russia

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Russian Navy Touts 'Upgraded' Nuclear Force, Warns of NATO Offensive Drills

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

'Oreshniks' in Belarus Deter NATO Aggression - Global Research

Global Research•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?

40%

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.5%

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

9.4%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

2023 Leaderboard

Belarus

US Department of Defense

Belarus–Russia relations

Russia under Vladimir Putin

Russia

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Russian Navy Touts 'Upgraded' Nuclear Force, Warns of NATO Offensive Drills

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

'Oreshniks' in Belarus Deter NATO Aggression - Global Research

Global Research•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?

40%

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.5%

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

9.4%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Will Russia station at least one nuclear weapon in Belarus before 2024?

Make a Prediction

Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

Comments

Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?

Will Russia significantly incorporate Belarus into the Union State before 2030?

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?