Question

Will the WHO identify a new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern before 2024?

Resolved :No1%

15 comments15

Total Forecasters91

Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

55.7

Community Peer Score

36.3

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Mar 31, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 4, 2024

Keep Virginia Safe II

Keep Virginia Safe II: Keep Virginia Safe Series

Wastewater sampling could be key to early warning of new disease outbreaks

Guardian•Mar 5, 2025

Shock as Mpox mutates AGAIN - new variant is highly transmissible, concerned experts warn

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

Mpox APOBEC3: New ‘highly infectious’ variant identified in DRC

Independent•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before July 1, 2025?

Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?

How many named variants of SARS-COV-2 in its first 10 years?

Comments

? comments