Question

Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?

Resolved :Yes90%

81 comments81

Total Forecasters228

Community Prediction90% (70% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

15.2

Community Peer Score

25.9

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Authors:

obgzqpna

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

Law

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Trump hush money judge refuses to throw out conviction on presidential ‘immunity’ grounds

Independent•Dec 17, 2024

Judge rejects Trump’s bid to toss hush money conviction because of Supreme Court immunity ruling

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Judge Won’t Throw Out Trump’s Hush Money Conviction Because Of Immunity Ruling

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

0.1%

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2029-10-05

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

1.2%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

obgzqpna

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Elections

Law

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Trump hush money judge refuses to throw out conviction on presidential ‘immunity’ grounds

Independent•Dec 17, 2024

Judge rejects Trump’s bid to toss hush money conviction because of Supreme Court immunity ruling

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Judge Won’t Throw Out Trump’s Hush Money Conviction Because Of Immunity Ruling

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

0.1%

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2029-10-05

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

1.2%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?

Make a Prediction

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

Comments

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?