Question

Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?

Resolved :Yes

81 comments81

Total Forecasters228

Community Prediction90%

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community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

15.2

Community Peer Score

25.9

median 90.0%mean 81.8%

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Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2025-12-16

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

11%

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obgzqpna

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Nearly half of people convicted of the same crimes as Donald Trump are sent to prison, study finds

Independent•Oct 9, 2024

Ask Jordan: When will Trump's criminal cases end?

MSNBC•Oct 12, 2024

Things to know about AP’s report on the federal criminal cases against former President Donald Trump

Associated Press•Oct 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2025-12-16

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

11%