Question

Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any crime in the Manhattan case before Election Day 2024?

Resolved :Yes

81 comments81

Total Forecasters228

Community Prediction90%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

15.2

Community Peer Score

25.9

median 90.0%mean 81.8%

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obgzqpna

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Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

0.1%

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2029-10-05

Will Donald Trump be jailed or incarcerated before 2030?

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Authors:

obgzqpna

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Judge to rule whether to throw out Trump’s criminal hush money conviction

New York Post•Nov 12, 2024

Donald Trump's New York hush money sentencing in jeopardy as case deadlines paused

USA Today•Nov 13, 2024

Whether Trump will ever get sentenced on his hush-money conviction may become clear on Tuesday

Business Insider•Nov 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald J. Trump be convicted of at least one count in his federal court cases before the end of 2024?

0.1%

If Donald Trump is incarcerated or put under house arrest for over 30 days before 2030, what date will his confinement begin?

2029-10-05