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Conditional on a new "cash for clunkers" program, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are ZEVs?

9 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Implemented

Not implemented

Make a Prediction

Condition	25th	median	75th
Implemented	39.9 ...	48 ...	55.1 ...
Not implemented	28.4 ...	35.4 ...	42.5 ...

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

39.86

48.02

55.08

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Retire Your Ride

Zero-emissions vehicle

United States

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Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

50.1

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on gas prices, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Retire Your Ride

Zero-emissions vehicle

United States

Worldwide Harmonised Light Vehicles Test Procedure

Car Allowance Rebate System

The federal EV tax credit has an uncertain fate. What car shoppers should know

NPR Online News•Dec 16, 2024

US EPA approves California plan to ban gas-only cars starting in 2035

One America•Dec 18, 2024

EPA Approves California Plan to Ban Sales of Gas Cars by 2035

Newsweek•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

50.1

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Conditional on a new "cash for clunkers" program, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are ZEVs?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on gas prices, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Comments

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on gas prices, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on gas prices, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on the number of states adopting ZEV mandates, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on EV median range, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?

Conditional on gas prices, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are zero-emission vehicles?