Group

Conditional on the US implementing NEPA reform, how many mines will produce either cobalt, nickel, manganese, or graphite in the United States in 2030?

6 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Law passed

Law not passed

Make a Prediction

Condition	25th	median	75th
Law passed	1.65 ...	2.66 ...	3.77 ...
Law not passed	0.724 ...	1.38 ...	2.24 ...

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>20

...

1.651

2.657

3.771

0.1%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Environmental impact statement

National Environmental Policy Act

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Conditional on the US implementing NEPA reform, what will be the change in the energy transition metal index for December of 2027 relative to December 2020?

Will at least three lithium mines operate in the US before 2030?

65%

Conditional on the US eliminating EV sourcing requirements, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are ZEVs?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 2

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

Environmental impact statement

National Environmental Policy Act

President Biden sets 2035 US emissions goal in Trump's shadow

•Dec 19, 2024

Biden set an ambitious new climate goal. Will it still matter under Trump?

•Dec 19, 2024

Republicans’ Next Reconciliation Bill Could Include These Reforms

Forbes•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on the US implementing NEPA reform, what will be the change in the energy transition metal index for December of 2027 relative to December 2020?

Will at least three lithium mines operate in the US before 2030?

65%

Conditional on the US eliminating EV sourcing requirements, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are ZEVs?

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Conditional on the US implementing NEPA reform, how many mines will produce either cobalt, nickel, manganese, or graphite in the United States in 2030?

Forecast Timeline

Make a Prediction

Conditional on the US implementing NEPA reform, what will be the change in the energy transition metal index for December of 2027 relative to December 2020?

Will at least three lithium mines operate in the US before 2030?

Conditional on the US eliminating EV sourcing requirements, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are ZEVs?

Comments

Conditional on the US implementing NEPA reform, what will be the change in the energy transition metal index for December of 2027 relative to December 2020?

Will at least three lithium mines operate in the US before 2030?

Conditional on the US eliminating EV sourcing requirements, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are ZEVs?

Conditional on the US implementing NEPA reform, what will be the change in the energy transition metal index for December of 2027 relative to December 2020?

Will at least three lithium mines operate in the US before 2030?

Conditional on the US eliminating EV sourcing requirements, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are ZEVs?

Conditional on the US implementing NEPA reform, what will be the change in the energy transition metal index for December of 2027 relative to December 2020?

Will at least three lithium mines operate in the US before 2030?

Conditional on the US eliminating EV sourcing requirements, what will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in 2030 which are ZEVs?