📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

What will be the average preparation time (in days) of environmental impact statements completed in 2025?

1
4
Total Forecasters16
Community Prediction1.52k (1.43k - 1.61k)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

weight:
My Prediction
community
<600
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2.6k
...
...
...
...
...
0.2%
1.43k
1.524k
1.613k
0.3%
Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Climate Tipping Points
Climate Tipping Points Round 2
Environment & Climate
Economy & Business
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Environmental impact statement
US Environmental Protection Agency
Council on Environmental Quality
Public policy
National Environmental Policy Act
Environmental science
Federal Register

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