Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Ukraine have de facto control of the city council building in Mariupol on January 1, 2024?

Resolved :No0.1%
8
3
Total Forecasters94
Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 0.4%)

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50%
community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
88.3
Community Peer Score
16.5
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
michal_dubrawskiDataprasad
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Geopolitics
2023 Leaderboard
Azovstal iron and steel works
Sea of Azov
Institute for the Study of War
Ukraine
Mariupol

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