Question

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters191

Community Prediction5%

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50%

community: 5%

median 5.0%mean 11.2%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Ragnarök Series

New Zealand

Australia women's national soccer team

Nuclear winter

Environmental science

A new nuclear arms race is beginning. It will be far more dangerous than the last one

Guardian•Nov 14, 2024

Could Zelensky really go nuclear and build a ‘dirty bomb’ if Trump ends US support of Ukraine?

Independent•Nov 15, 2024

Russia says Ukraine attacked it using U.S. long-range missiles, signals it's ready for nuclear response

CNBC•Nov 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

27%

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

22%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Ragnarök Series

New Zealand

Australia women's national soccer team

Nuclear winter

Environmental science

A new nuclear arms race is beginning. It will be far more dangerous than the last one

Guardian•Nov 14, 2024

Could Zelensky really go nuclear and build a ‘dirty bomb’ if Trump ends US support of Ukraine?

Independent•Nov 15, 2024

Russia says Ukraine attacked it using U.S. long-range missiles, signals it's ready for nuclear response

CNBC•Nov 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

27%

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

22%