Question

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters191

Community Prediction

(3% - 15%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Nov 22, 2018

Closes:

Dec 31, 2099

Scheduled resolution:

May 31, 2101

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 22, 2018

Ragnarök Series

New Zealand

Nuclear winter

Environmental science

Australia women's national soccer team

A Biologist Refutes Elon Musk’s ‘Adult Diaper’ Theory On Population Decline

Forbes•Mar 22, 2025

Discovery of Immense Methane Leaks in Antarctica

CounterPunch•Mar 21, 2025

Supernovas may have played a role in two of Earth’s largest mass extinctions, study suggests

CNN•Mar 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

29.2%

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

19%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Nov 22, 2018

Closes:

Dec 31, 2099

Scheduled resolution:

May 31, 2101

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 22, 2018

Ragnarök Series

New Zealand

Nuclear winter

Environmental science

Australia women's national soccer team

A Biologist Refutes Elon Musk’s ‘Adult Diaper’ Theory On Population Decline

Forbes•Mar 22, 2025

Discovery of Immense Methane Leaks in Antarctica

CounterPunch•Mar 21, 2025

Supernovas may have played a role in two of Earth’s largest mass extinctions, study suggests

CNN•Mar 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

29.2%

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global climate disaster occurs by 2100, will the Earth's human population decline by 95% or more?

Ragnarök Question Series: if catastrophe caused by some "other risk" occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

19%