Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Group

How many of the claims from study 3 of "Behavioral nudges reduce failure to appear for court" (Science, 2020) replicate?

5
7
17 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 14

Make a Prediction

NumberMe
0
no
2
yes
1
no
1.5
no
0.5
no
Resolved May 27, 2023
Community Baseline Score
89.5
Community Peer Score
25.1
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
RyanBeckTransparent_Replications
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Transparent Replications
Social Sciences
2023 Leaderboard
Amazon Mechanical Turk
Nature (journal)
Science

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