Question

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system by 2033?

Resolved :Annulled

3 comments3

Total Forecasters6

Community Prediction98%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 98%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

median 98.0%mean 81.6%

Authors:

zoehtwilliams

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

TaskRabbit

Machine learning

Facebook

Cyber-security regulation

Denial-of-service attack

Information theory

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

82%

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

70%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

zoehtwilliams

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

TaskRabbit

Machine learning

Facebook

Cyber-security regulation

Denial-of-service attack

Information theory

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Observer (NY)•Nov 13, 2024

Super Intelligent AI Might Be Online by 2025. Not Terrified? You Should Be

Red State•Nov 13, 2024

OpenAI reportedly plans to launch an AI agent early next year

Verge•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?

95%

Will an AI system be reported to have successfully blackmailed someone for >$1000 by EOY 2028?

82%

Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?

70%