Question

Will a citizen of the People's Republic of China be declared a 2019 Nobel Prize winner?

Resolved :No

2 comments2

Total Forecasters73

Community Prediction31%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 31%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

52.4

Community Peer Score

2.6

median 31.0%mean 28.9%

Authors:

KrisMoore

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Sports & Entertainment

When will an AI win a Nobel prize for the first time?

2070-10-18

Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?

10%

Will Stephen Wolfram, Jonathan Gorard, or Max Piskunov receive the Nobel prize in physics before 2036?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

KrisMoore

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Sports & Entertainment

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an AI win a Nobel prize for the first time?

2070-10-18

Will George Church receive a Nobel prize, in any category, before the end of 2035?

10%