Question

Will a reddit submission get a score of 100k on (approximately) December 15th 2018?

Resolved :Yes81%

3 comments3

Total Forecasters46

Community Prediction81% (75% - 82%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 81%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

69.1

Community Peer Score

-1.2

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Authors:

KrisMoore

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

The stock market may be on the verge of its Santa Claus rally, but everything depends on the Fed this year, BofA says

Business Insider•Dec 17, 2024

Bitcoin’s Incredible Rise: $106,000 Amid Wild Speculation

•Dec 18, 2024

Bitcoin Hits Historic $106,000 High—Is It Headed for $120,000 Next?

•Dec 18, 2024

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What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?

98.2

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

0.986

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?

96.9

Comments

? comments

Authors:

KrisMoore

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

The stock market may be on the verge of its Santa Claus rally, but everything depends on the Fed this year, BofA says

Business Insider•Dec 17, 2024

Bitcoin’s Incredible Rise: $106,000 Amid Wild Speculation

•Dec 18, 2024

Bitcoin Hits Historic $106,000 High—Is It Headed for $120,000 Next?

•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?

98.2

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

0.986

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?

96.9

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will a reddit submission get a score of 100k on (approximately) December 15th 2018?

Make a Prediction

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?

Comments

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2040?

What will be the best normalized score achieved on the original 7 RE-Bench tasks by December 31st 2025?

What will be the best non-human SAT-style score on the hard subset of the QuALITY dataset by January 1, 2030?