Question

Will genetic data from a new Denisova hominin be published in the first 6 months of 2019?

Resolved :No33%

4 comments4

Total Forecasters33

Community Prediction33% (25% - 38%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 33%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

51.6

Community Peer Score

4.2

Authors:

KrisMoore

Opened:

Dec 5, 2018

Closes:

Dec 31, 2018

Resolves:

Jun 30, 2019

Natural Sciences

2018-2019 Leaderboard

Mammoth De-Extinction a 'Step Closer' As Geneticists Create Woolly Mouse

Newsweek•Mar 4, 2025

Scientists genetically engineer mice with thick hair like the extinct woolly mammoth

Associated Press•Mar 4, 2025

Scientists Have Bred Woolly Mice on Their Journey to Bring Back the Mammoth

Time•Mar 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will a Neanderthal be born again?

2099-01-31

Will there be adversarial use of consumer genomic data before 2030?

73%

When will the Chinese government have gathered genome-wide data on 1 billion citizens?

2028-06-17

Comments

? comments