Question

Will the US-China trade war escalate after the initial truce period ending 24 February 2019?

Resolved :No

11 comments11

Total Forecasters73

Community Prediction25%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 25%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

-8.7

Community Peer Score

5.9

median 25.0%mean 29.1%

Authors:

erik.bjareholt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Will there be a US-China war before 2035?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Will there be a US-China war before 2050?

12%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

erik.bjareholt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Trump's first term avoided a fight in the South China Sea. It's only getting harder.

Business Insider•Nov 13, 2024

Xi-Biden meet: Tariffs to Taiwan, what ails US-China ties as Trump looms

Al Jazeera•Nov 16, 2024

U.S. companies could be caught in the crosshairs if China retaliates to fight Trump

NBC•Nov 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be a US-China war before 2035?

Will there be a military conflict resulting in at least 50 deaths between the United States and China in 2024?

0.1%

Will there be a US-China war before 2050?

12%