Question

Will an Elon Musk-funded AI lab release an LLM before 2024?

Resolved :Yes

46 comments46

Total Forecasters199

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-12.1

Community Peer Score

17.7

median 99.0%mean 96.2%

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Business of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Graphics processing unit

Google Brain

Elon Musk

Anthropic

Future of Life Institute

OpenAI

DeepMind

Will OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or Anthropic announce that they are pausing all training runs above a certain size for safety reasons, before 2026?

LLM passes ARA before 2025? → LLM training paused for dangerous capability? (OpenAI)

Will OpenAI release an LLM product or API that hallucinates 5x less than GPT-4 did when it was released, by June 30, 2025?

80%

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