Question

Will Queen Elizabeth II still be the reigning monarch of the United Kingdom in 2020?

Resolved :Yes75%

9 comments9

Total Forecasters52

Community Prediction75% (63% - 85%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 75%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

55.1

Community Peer Score

-0.7

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

2018-2019 Leaderboard

Sapphire Jubilee of Elizabeth II

Elizabeth II

United Kingdom

King Charles has a long road to recovery ahead

Spectator (UK)•Dec 20, 2024

How second full year of Charles’s reign parallels 1992 ‘annus horribilis’

Guardian•Dec 21, 2024

King Charles makes a wry joke about his health as it's confirmed his cancer treatment will continue into next year

Daily Mail•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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Will King Charles III abdicate the throne of the United Kingdom before September 9, 2032?

12.4%

Will Belgium, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain and Sweden all have Queens regnant simultaneously before the year 2100?

53.5%

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