πŸ“– The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

πŸ”­ The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global β€” Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm β€” and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?

Resolved :No0.3%
7
2
Total Forecasters49
Community Prediction0.3% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 0.3%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
96.0
Community Peer Score
9.9
Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Geopolitics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Vladimir Putin
Foreign policy of Vladimir Putin
Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki
Nuclear weapons testing
Peaceful nuclear explosion
Cuban Missile Crisis
Russia

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