Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?

conditional

condition

Armed Conflict China/Taiwan by 2024

Resolved :No

25 forecasters

if yes

if no

Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?

Resolved :Annulled2%

Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?

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Armed Conflict China/Taiwan by 2024	Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?
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if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 2%

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Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

USS Makin Island (LHD-8)

Taiwan

United States

Foreign policy of Vladimir Putin

USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71)

Cuban Missile Crisis

Taiwan Strait

China continues nuclear buildup, has strengthened ties to Russia, Defense Dept report says

CBS•Dec 18, 2024

China has expanded its nuclear force and strengthened ties to Russia, the Pentagon says

Associated Press•Dec 19, 2024

Pentagon’s annual China-power report notes nuclear, influence threats—but also corruption

Defense One•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → US-China war before 2035?

In 2025, will there be at least 50 fatalities in a military conflict between Taiwan and China, or China and the U.S.?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

USS Makin Island (LHD-8)

Taiwan

United States

Foreign policy of Vladimir Putin

USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71)

Cuban Missile Crisis

Taiwan Strait

China continues nuclear buildup, has strengthened ties to Russia, Defense Dept report says

CBS•Dec 18, 2024

China has expanded its nuclear force and strengthened ties to Russia, the Pentagon says

Associated Press•Dec 19, 2024

Pentagon’s annual China-power report notes nuclear, influence threats—but also corruption

Defense One•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Armed Conflict China/Taiwan by 2024

Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?

Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?

Make a Prediction

Armed Conflict China/Taiwan by 2024

Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?

Forecast Timeline

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → US-China war before 2035?

In 2025, will there be at least 50 fatalities in a military conflict between Taiwan and China, or China and the U.S.?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

Comments

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → US-China war before 2035?

In 2025, will there be at least 50 fatalities in a military conflict between Taiwan and China, or China and the U.S.?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → US-China war before 2035?

In 2025, will there be at least 50 fatalities in a military conflict between Taiwan and China, or China and the U.S.?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?

China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference? → US-China war before 2035?

In 2025, will there be at least 50 fatalities in a military conflict between Taiwan and China, or China and the U.S.?

Will there be nuclear conflict between any of the US, China, and Taiwan before the following years?