Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

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Armed Conflict China/Taiwan by 2024

Fatality due to Nuclear Detonation by 2025?

50%
community: 2%
The question "Will there be armed conflict between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) before January 1, 2024?" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "Will there be at least 1 fatality from a non-test nuclear detonation before 2025?" resolves.
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