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11 comments
19 forecasters

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

98%chance
1.5 pp this week
Top Key Factors
Attention mechanisms have incurred 7 years' gradual innovations, showing that the transformer architecture is still evolving and improving.
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In March 2023, a new state-of-the-art model was being released almost every other day, indicating rapid advancements and competition in NLP models.
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Currently, PaLM and Megatron NLG 530B by Nvidia are leading the chart on performance, demonstrating the dominance of transformer models in NLP benchmarks.
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Despite advancements, some models like the Eagle 7B have surpassed traditional transformers in evaluation benchmarks, suggesting potential competition to transformer dominance.
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The attention mechanism in transformer models, which calculates correlations between pairs of tokens, takes quadratic time in the input size, making it a time bottleneck for transformer operations.
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Authors:
will_aldredelifland
Opened:May 14, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2027
Spot Scoring Time:May 17, 2024
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
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Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

95% chance
101

When will large language models exceed superforecasters’ accuracy in ForecastBench?

24 May 2027
(11 Oct 2026 - Oct 2031)
24 May 2027
(11 Oct 2026 - Oct 2031)
7 forecasters

Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?

Gary Marcus
85%
Miles Brundage
15%
76 forecasters
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