Question

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters14

Community Prediction95% (85% - 98%)

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50%

community: 95%

Authors:

will_aldred elifland

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Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Natural language processing

Physics

Electronics

Electrical engineering

Jonathan Franklin

Inside the launch — and future — of ChatGPT

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Cartesia claims its AI is efficient enough to run pretty much anywhere

TechCrunch•Dec 13, 2024

OpenAI cofounder Ilya Sutskever says the way AI is built is about to change

Verge•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

85%

Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

will_aldred elifland

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Natural language processing

Physics

Electronics

Electrical engineering

Jonathan Franklin

Inside the launch — and future — of ChatGPT

Verge•Dec 13, 2024

Cartesia claims its AI is efficient enough to run pretty much anywhere

TechCrunch•Dec 13, 2024

OpenAI cofounder Ilya Sutskever says the way AI is built is about to change

Verge•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

85%

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Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?

Make a Prediction

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?

Comments

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?

Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2030?

Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?

Will Robin Hanson win a bet that the GPT line of language models will generate < $1Bn in customer revenue before 2025?