11 comments
19 forecasters
Will transformer models be the state-of-the-art on most natural language processing benchmarks on January 1, 2027?
98%chance
1.5 pp this week
Top Key Factors
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Opened:May 14, 2024
Closes:Dec 31, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Jan 2, 2027
Spot Scoring Time:May 17, 2024
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Will transformer derived architectures still be state of the art for language modeling in December 2025?
95% chance
101
When will large language models exceed superforecasters’ accuracy in ForecastBench?
24 May 2027
(11 Oct 2026 - Oct 2031)
24 May 2027
(11 Oct 2026 - Oct 2031)
7 forecasters
Who will win the bet between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage about the state of AI at the end of 2027?
76 forecasters