Question

What will be the heaviest payload (in kg) put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service on January 1, 2050?

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Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction218k (122k - 422k)

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median

upper 75%

>10M

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0.2%

122.1k

218.1k

421.7k

0.6%

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Authors:

Jgalt

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Apollo command and service module

Falcon Heavy

Apollo Lunar Module

Aerospace engineering

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What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years?

75.1

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?

716

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Apollo command and service module

Falcon Heavy

Apollo Lunar Module

Aerospace engineering

From Starship tests to Starliner woes, recapping the biggest spaceflight missions of 2024

USA Today•Dec 16, 2024

Cost overruns jeopardize Artemis moon landing, threaten NASA SLS rocket's future

USA Today•Dec 16, 2024

Outgoing NASA leader Bill Nelson weighs in on Elon Musk and SpaceX, defends plans for moon rocket

CBS•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years?

75.1

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?

716

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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What will be the heaviest payload (in kg) put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service on January 1, 2050?

Make a Prediction

What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years?

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?

Comments

What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years?

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?

What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years?

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?

What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years?

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?