Question

What will be the heaviest payload (in kg) put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service on January 1, 2050?

13 comments13

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction221k

Make a Prediction

My Prediction

community

<1k

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10M

...

0.2%

123k

221k

428k

0.6%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Space

Economy & Business

Technology

Outline of space science

Astronomy

Physics

Saturn V

Apollo command and service module

Falcon Heavy

Apollo Lunar Module

Aerospace engineering

What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years?

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?

696

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Space

Economy & Business

Technology

Outline of space science

Astronomy

Physics

Saturn V

Apollo command and service module

Falcon Heavy

Apollo Lunar Module

Aerospace engineering

Cybertruck Finally Gets Full Self-Driving (Supervised)

Wired•Oct 1, 2024

TechCrunch Space: The dawn of the space age

TechCrunch•Oct 1, 2024

The Navy’s new missile sub could cost ‘hundreds of millions’ extra: GAO

Defense One•Oct 1, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years?

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?

696

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

What will be the heaviest payload (in kg) put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service on January 1, 2050?

Make a Prediction

What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years?

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?

Comments

What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years?

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?

What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years?

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?

What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years?

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?