Question

What will be the heaviest payload (in kg) put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service on January 1, 2050?

13 comments13

Total Forecasters45

Community Prediction218k (122k - 422k)

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weight:

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community

<1k

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>10M

...

0.2%

122.1k

218.1k

421.7k

0.6%

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Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Apollo command and service module

Falcon Heavy

Apollo Lunar Module

Aerospace engineering

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What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years?

75.1

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?

716

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Apollo command and service module

Falcon Heavy

Apollo Lunar Module

Aerospace engineering

Outgoing NASA leader Bill Nelson weighs in on Elon Musk and SpaceX, defends plans for moon rocket

CBS•Dec 19, 2024

SpaceX gets green light for 7th Starship mission

TechCrunch•Dec 19, 2024

K2 Space will fly its extra-large satellite for the first time in 2026

TechCrunch•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years?

75.1

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?

716

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

What will be the heaviest payload (in kg) put into LEO by a launch vehicle that is in service on January 1, 2050?

Make a Prediction

What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years?

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?

Comments

What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years?

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?

What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years?

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?

What will be the largest payload capacity (in tons) of a successfully reused launch vehicle in the following years?

What propulsion mechanism will launch a payload into space at a cost of < $100/kg first?

What will be the lowest cost per kilogram, in US dollars, to deliver a payload to LEO or beyond before 2025?