Question

Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?

Resolved :No

10 comments10

Total Forecasters47

Community Prediction31%

Make a Prediction

community: 31%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

49.0

Community Peer Score

-0.1

median 31.0%mean 28.7%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Technology

United Nations Security Council

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

History

Nuclear Science and Techniques

History of the Teller–Ulam design

Earth

Trinity (nuclear test)

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

North Korea

What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?

271

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

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