Question

Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?

Resolved :No31%

10 comments10

Total Forecasters47

Community Prediction31% (25% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 31%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

49.0

Community Beer Score

-0.1

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Technology

2018-2019 Leaderboard

United Nations Security Council

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

History

History of the Teller–Ulam design

Earth

Trinity (nuclear test)

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

North Korea

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Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Joe Biden Under Pressure To Take Away Donald Trump's Nuclear War Power

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

China Hosts Nuclear Weapons Talks Amid Saber-Rattling in Europe

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?

271

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Technology

2018-2019 Leaderboard

United Nations Security Council

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

History

History of the Teller–Ulam design

Earth

Trinity (nuclear test)

Atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

North Korea

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Joe Biden Under Pressure To Take Away Donald Trump's Nuclear War Power

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

China Hosts Nuclear Weapons Talks Amid Saber-Rattling in Europe

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?

271

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

3.5%

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Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?

Make a Prediction

What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Comments

What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

What will be the largest yield (in kt) nuclear weapon offensively detonated by 2050, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Will a non-test nuclear detonation by a non-state actor cause at least one fatality by 2030?

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?