Question

Will a nuclear device with a yield above 1kt be detonated anywhere on Earth in 2019?

Resolved :No31%

10 comments10

Total Forecasters47

Community Prediction31% (25% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 31%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

49.0

Community Peer Score

-0.1

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Dec 11, 2018

Closes:

Dec 31, 2018

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2019

Geopolitics

Technology

2018-2019 Leaderboard

United Nations Security Council

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

History

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