Question

By January 1, 2050, will it be possible to increase a healthy adult human's IQ by at least two standard deviations in less than 30 days?

60 comments60

Total Forecasters270

Community Prediction5%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 5%

median 5.0%mean 13.3%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Intelligence quotient

Education

Raven's Progressive Matrices

By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?

58%

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

2029-04-21

How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?

0.256

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Intelligence quotient

Education

Raven's Progressive Matrices

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By 2050, will genetic engineering techniques be available which can raise IQ by 10 points?

58%

When will 100 babies be born whose embryos were selected for genetic scores for intelligence?

2029-04-21

How good will the best published polygenic score be for intelligence in 2026?

0.256