Question

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

8 comments8

Total Forecasters81

Community Prediction10%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 10%

median 10.0%mean 13.8%

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Self-replicating spacecraft

Milky Way

Aerospace engineering

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Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193

Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

0.0866

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Self-replicating spacecraft

Milky Way

Aerospace engineering

Voyager 2’s defining Uranus flyby may have been skewed by a rare cosmic event

CNN•Nov 12, 2024

‘Bizarre’ Moon Around Uranus Could Suddenly Host Life — What To Know

Forbes•Nov 12, 2024

Rosetta-Philae Probe: How Humans Touched Down on a Comet for the First Time

Newsweek•Nov 12, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193

Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

0.0866