Question

Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

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Jgalt

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Self-replicating spacecraft

Milky Way

Aerospace engineering

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Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193

Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

0.0866

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Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Self-replicating spacecraft

Milky Way

Aerospace engineering

Astronomers Propose Radical New Way To Look For Signs Of Energy- Hungry Aliens

Forbes•Dec 13, 2024

Parker Solar Probe will soon go deeper into the sun than ever before

New Scientist•Dec 13, 2024

NASA finalizes strategy for human presence in space

FOX News•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

193

Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

0.0866

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Will a von Neumann probe be launched before 2050?

Make a Prediction

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

Comments

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c (> 1)?

Will Elon Musk's Tesla Roadster be visited by a spacecraft before 2050?

Conditional on civilization launching one or more von Neumann probes by 2200 that will reach another solar system within 100,000 years, what will be the average speed of the fastest one, in c?